The residential sales statistics for February 2010 are in and show that things are slower this year than last probably due to the local and national downturn. Year over year, there were 3% more active listings in 2010 than in February 2009. There were 22% fewer new listings this February than February last year so at least the supply is not growing too quickly but there were 47% fewer houses under contract this year than in February of 2009. There were also 35% fewer houses that closed this year than in February of 2009. The average sales price actually increased 3% so prices appear to have remained stable so far in spite of the slowdown. The slow market may have resulted, at least partially, from the terrible weather we had here the last couple of months. It was real cold and snow came and stayed for a couple of weeks which is unusual in this area. March is starting out warm and sunny and hopefully things will improve this month.

It is the middle of February. The weather has warmed and most of the snow has melted. The local election is scheduled for about two weeks from now. No real news on the economic front although Olive Garden should open in town by summer. There have been rumors that this Italian Restaurant was coming to town for year although until now none have panned out. Based on local news accounts, the restaurant should employ 165 people. St. Clairs, a new restaurant opened a few weeks ago and is busy all the time. This is a good indication long term for the local ecomony.

At the beginning of February the weather has broken, at least for a while. January was cold and snowy. Reports in the local newspaper indicate that unemployment in the county has risen to over 9% with the closing of Bloomfield Refinery and the continued slow down in the oil and gas fields in the area. MLS statistics indicate that in 2009 there were 600 listings active in January while this year there were 642, about a 7% increase. In 2009 there wre 35 sales closed in January while in 2010 only 24 sales closed indicating a 31% decrease year over year. The average sales price was down about 2% from $209,048 to 204,328 as the list price to sales price ratio declined from 99% to 97%. Clean well located houses under $500,000 are still selling but buyers are skimming the cream of the market off the top.

Farmington Daily Times, "Unemployment at 8.9% in the County". Unemployment in San Juan County rose to 8.9% in November which is reportedly the highest level in the State. The San Juan County economy relies, to a large extent, on extractive industries including coal mining and oil and gas exploration. Natural gas prices fell into the low $2.00/MMCF in late summer due to many factors including fears that new supplies, the new shale plays in the northeast and north, could glut the market and lead to an oversupply in the future. This, coupled with the national recession, led to layoffs in the area and a general slowdown of the San Juan County economy. In spite of this, the area market has been essentially stable although some segments of the market including manufactured homes and properties in the higher price ranges are curretnly over supplied which will likely lead to a softening of prices in the future. Once interest rates rise and the tax incentives expire, the market overall will most likely soften.

2010 has come to San Juan County. I hate to make any predicaitons but based on the current economic climate, interest rates and tax incentives it is my opinion that this year should track 2009 fairly closely at least until June or July. Values in most price ranges should remain stable although sales of manufactured homes and sales of houses in the upper ranges of the market will continue to be soft as we slowly work through the current over supply in these portions of the market. Rumblings are beginning to be hard regarding increases in interest rates. If this happens or if the tax incentives dry up things could change for the worst.

Year over year statistics are out for San Juan County through 12/20/2009. Based on MLS data, the average sales price of properties in the county including manufactured homes, townhomes, site built houses and condos fell from $208,969 to $205,295 which is approximately a 2% decrease from the prior year. The total number of units sold fell from 793 total to 641 which represents a 19% decrease year over year. The list price to sales price ratio average actually increased from 95% last year to 98% in 2009 accoding to the MLS data while the total sales volume of $131,594,194 was 21% lower than the volume of $165,712,500 which was the total of sales in 2008. This data is for Farmington, Bloomfield, Kirtland, La Plata and Aztec New Mexico as well as the rural areas of San Juan County south of the Colorado border.

We are sometimes asked if you can use an appraisal that is over six months old.  There is no hard and fast rule with respect to how long an appraisal can be used or how long it can give an indication of the value of a property.  An appraisal is a snapshot of value as of a given day.  The market could change the following day or within a few weeks and values could change up or down.  Typically a lender will consider an appraisal that is less than six months old to be current.  However, this can change (especially in this economy?) and is not the case with all lenders. If in doubt, it is the lender that must make the decision, rather than the appraiser.

One of the most common things we are asked is how much is my property worth.  "Can you give me an idea over the phone of what I can sell my property for."  What some lenders and many people in the community may not always realize is that appraisers can have no idea of the value of a property until we have completely inspected the site and improvements, researched the market and compared the property to others that have sold recently in the area.  These things change with each appraisal and vary as the market changes. In fact, appraisers are actually prohibited from drawing conclusions and rendering an opinion of value based on a cursory idea of the property. That's why you can't really rely on an automated internet valuation, either. They carry no weight, because they can't be relied on for any professional purpose and are not reliable even for setting the sales price of your home.

I believe that one of the things we do differently compared to other Real Estate Appraisal firms is that we work closely with lenders and other clients making sure that we meet turn times even when it means working nights and weekends.  We realize that many things can conspire to delay a closing and we are committed to doing our part to keep the process moving. 

The story of Dinning Appraisals begins in 1976 when I (Bob Dinning) purchased my first investment property.  Over the years I purchased and brokered real estate in New Mexico and finally in 1987 decided that I preferred the more technical side of the business.  I started as a residential appraiser in the late 80s and added a commercial certification in 1995. 
 
In 2005 my daughter Melissa came to work with me and has taken a large role in the residential side of the business.  She is certified as a residential appraiser and we are both FHA certified.  Our company is a member of the Relocation Council and work with numerous relocation companies.  I do all of the commercial work including most estate valuations, easement and eminent domain appraisals, well site valuations and property settlement appraisals in divorce cases.